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Bulgaria flag Bulgaria:

Country risk of Bulgaria : Economy

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

The Covid-19 pandemic hit Bulgaria at a time when its economy was performing well. Before the sanitary crisis, a series of structural reforms, the highly successful integration of Bulgarian manufacturing firms into world production chains, and sound macroeconomic management had led to five years of growth rates above 3%, rapidly rising real wages and historically low unemployment. After falling into recession in 2020, the economy rebounded and grew an estimated 4.5% in 2021 (IMF), underpinned by robust private consumption and the recovery of goods exports. According to IMF's forecasts, growth is expected to reach 4.4% in 2022 before marginally slowing to 4% in 2023, also thanks to the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility grants (which should cumulate about 4.3% of 2019 GDP over the forecast horizon).

The country's public finances are relatively strong, with a low debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the effects of the Covid-19 crisis are clearly visible: the debt increased from a pre-pandemic level of 18.4% to 25% in 2021, and the government budget was negative by 2.3% of GDP in the same year, as the government extended the emergency support to households, businesses and the health sector. The deficit is forecast to remain stable in 2022 and decrease to 1.3% the following year as most measures are phased-out and revenues recover. On the other hand, the debt-to-GDP should rise further (to 26.1% and 26.7% this year and the next). Headline inflation reached 2.1% in 2021 on the back of high energy prices. The IMF expects the rate to float around 1.9% over the forecast horizon.

The unemployment rate was estimated at 5.2% in 2021, strongly influenced by the negative economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic despite the job-retention schemes put in place by the government. The favourable economic outlook is set to tighten the labour market over the forecast horizon, hence unemployment should follow a downward trend (4.7% this year and 4.4% in 2023 – IMF). Overall, income inequality in Bulgaria is among the highest in the EU, and almost 35% of the population is at risk of poverty (the second-highest rate in the EU after Romania).

 

Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.

 

Business environment ranking

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:
6.49/10
World Rank:
45/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024

 
Country Risk
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
Main Online Newspapers
Novinite
BTA
Monitor (Economic newspaper in Bulgarian)
Useful Resources
Ministry of Economy
Ministry of Finance
Bulgarian National Bank

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Latest Update: November 2022