Guinea flag Guinea:

Country risk of Guinea : Economy

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Guinea has been recording sustained growth in recent years, driven by mining (mainly bauxite), greater investments in infrastructures as well as good agricultural performances. Despite the measures introduced to limit the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and the global crisis that followed, Guinea’s economy grew by 7.1% in 2020, driven by a dynamic mining sector (IMF). Economic growth decelerated to 5.2% in 2021, and is expected to strengthen to 6.3% in 2022 and to remain high at 5.9% in 2023 (IMF). It will be driven by high external demand for bauxite and gold, improving demand for diamonds, a recovery in non-mining sectors, the easing of Covid-related disruptions and the expected settlement of government payment arrears (IMF). Global and domestic uncertainties could nonetheless cloud the outlook.

In 2021, the Guinean economy continued to show resilience, supported by a dynamic mining sector and the recovery of non-mining sectors. Increased mining revenues and a reduction in electricity subsidies allowed the budget deficit to narrow in 2021, despite higher capital expenditures related to investments (Coface). From -2.9% GDP in 2020, budget deficit decreased to -2.2% GDP in 2021 (Coface). It is expected to reach -2.5% GDP in 2022 (Coface). The deficit is financed through borrowing from international donors (IMF, AfDB, World Bank) and from China, the main creditor, which holds half of the external public debt (Coface). Public debt increased from an estimated 43.8% GDP in 2020 to 47.5% GDP in 2021, and it is expected to slowly reduce to 45.8% GDP in 2022 and 43.5% GDP in 2023 (IMF). Due to Covid-related supply constraints, rising global prices and accommodative macro policies, inflation picked up to 11.6% in 2021 (from 10.6% in 2020) (IMF). It is expected to reduce to 9.9% in 2022 and 8% in 2023, helped by the government repayment of central bank advances and the recent appreciation of the Guinean franc (IMF). The main priorities identified by the IMF are to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, to repay arrears to support a more vibrant private sector and help improve credit intermediation, and to increase investments in infrastructure and social sectors.

Multiple social inequalities are recorded in Guinea, which is classified as a low-income country by the World Bank (with a GDP per capita of only USD 2,700). It is estimated that the informal economy accounts for around half of GDP and 70% of employment. According to figures from the World Bank, the unemployment rate stood at 6.1% in 2020. Guinea is ranked 178th worldwide on the 2020 UNDP’s Human Development Index.

 

Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.

 
 
Country Risk
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
Main Online Newspapers
Allafrica, Guinea News
Afrol, News-Guinea
Guinea Newspapers and News Media Guide
BBC Country Profile, Guinea
Useful Resources
Ministry of Economy and Finance
Ministry of Mines
Ministry of Agriculture
Central Bank of Guinea

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Latest Update: October 2022